July 4/25

Global
  • Dow closed +217 points (0.8%) yesterday. Was mostly negative but ran 1 hour before close.
  • Asian markets are mixed.
  • Dow Futures are flat to negative. DAX, FTSE also similar.
  • SGX is in red with 35 odd points.
Option chain
  • 10400 CE had OI increase of 10L but on the contrary, there wasn't as much PE writing.
  • Instead, there was unwinding on the PE side at 10,100 levels by -8L.
  • This is very weird to me.
  • ATM strike premium net is 206. So 100096 to 10508
  • Nifty Bank is even more confusing in the Option chain.
  • Nifty Bank PCR is 0.69 for this expiry. We should not rule out a short-covering rally.
FnO Data
  • The biggest number is call shorts by Pro. Second is put short by Clients with other positions as mixed.
  • Signifying flat opening with either side mildly.
  • FIIs covered their future shorts and added a few longs. Maybe they are interested in just playing the range?

Charts & technicals
  • On the daily timeframe, Nifty made a higher high, higher low. But came off the opening highs.
  • Nifty 20 DMA at 10137. Nifty Bank 20 DMA at 21024.
  • Nifty 200 EMA at 10500.
Plan for today
  • FIIs covered some of their shorts, added some longs. Pros added more shorts. FIIs are maybe interested in just playing the range.
  • I should be keeping a close tab on the PCR and OI updates today.
  • Risk-reward not looking in favour of shorts at the moment.
  • I'm mentally preparing myself for another boring day. But hopeful of a move in the second half.

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July 2/25

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July 6/25

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