July 5/25

Global
  • Dow closed -77 points (0.3%) yesterday. Was mostly flat the whole time.
  • Dow Futures are flat to positive.
  • Most Asian markets are flat to positive.
  • HongKong markets are up 2.57%.
  • SGX is in green with 73 odd points.
Option chain
  • There was call unwinding on 10400 and below strikes. Signifying short-covering.
  • And, there was good writing of 16L, 13L on 10300 PE and 10400 PE strikes. These will act as very good support today.
  • Yesterday, there was put OI increase of 2L each at 10450, 10500 also.
  • And, some call unwinding at 10500. Only 30k.
  • It can turn out to be an interesting expiry.
  • ATM strike premium net is 114. So 10316 to 10544
  • On Nifty Bank, there was short-covering on 22000 CE but the bears defended 22000 yesterday as HDFCBank fell down sharply in the last 30 minutes.
  • It's still a significant resistance with 5L OI.
FnO Data
  • The biggest number is put long by Clients. Second is put short by Pros with other positions as bullish.
  • Signifying a flattish opening.
  • FIIs covered their future shorts and added more longs. We may be able to cross yesterday's high also.

Charts & technicals
  • On the daily timeframe, Nifty has 200 EMA at 10499. This may act as temporary resistance.
  • Nifty 20 DMA at 10145. Nifty Bank 20 DMA at 21076.
Plan for today
  • FIIs covered some of their shorts, added some longs. Pros also added bullish positions.
  • The newbie thing that comes to mind is to short, feeling like it has run a lot. But that may not be logical to do.
  • Risk-reward is in favour of shorts though if we open flat. But I might just avoid this temptation since there are still shorts to be covered.
  • I'm mentally preparing myself for a volatile day.

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July 2/25

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July 6/25

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