July 2/25

Global
  • Dow closed -2.3% on Friday.
  • Asian markets are in red. ~ -0.5%
  • Dow Futures are positive (holding 25k level). DAX, FTSE are in red.
  • SGX is in red by 50 odd points.
Option chain
  • 10500 has the highest OI at 25L. Near equivalent of 11000.
  • The OI is not looking straight-forward to me. Put premiums decreased more but CE premiums didn't rise as much. 10300 PE-CE lost value by 40 points.
  • My hunch is that -1 x 10300 PE and -2 x 10500 CE is a writing that's happening. This would give a range of 110 + 63.4*2 = 236.8
  • It's breakeven from 10040 to 10591
  • Unable to judge well for Nifty Bank

FnO Data
  • Pros, Clients have the biggest positions that are opposing. Pros have other bearish positions. Looking for a flat to negative opening.

Charts & technicals
  • On the weekly timeframe, Nifty made a dojo candle. A candle of indecision. Watch out for the low or high of it being taken out.
Plan for today
  • The upside is looking limited thus making me have a bearish hunch overall.
  • Plus, risk-reward is better on the downside at the moment, provided we get closer to the highs but not sustain above.
  • If we get a flattish opening, it can be interesting to see which side ATM strike hasn't decayed much. That might be the strike I can buy.
  • Overall, let's see - the market is still confused, I feel. And, Nifty Bank will decide a move earlier.

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July 6/25

Global Dow was doing well but saw profit booking in the last hour and closed +92 points (0.36%) yesterday. Markets world over are flat. SGX is in green with 40 odd points. Option chain Max pain at 10500. Total premium is 261. So, the range becomes 10290 to 10812 10600 CE and 10500 PE has seen writing. It'll work as a temporary range for today maybe. Max pain for Nifty Bank is 22000. Total premium 976. So range is 20,977 to 22,969 FnO Data No, new options' positions. We'll watch out things unfold rather than trying to predict. Charts & technicals On the daily timeframe, Nifty has 200 EMA at 10499. This may act as support. We are in a rising wedge sort of pattern in Nifty. Ideally, the way is to watch out for breakout on either side. Plan for today I'm tempted to short but more comfortable to do it at around 10680-10700 range. Might have to control the temptation and just let things unfold.
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