July 23/25

Global
  • Dow closed 114 points up yesterday.
  • Asian markets are flat to positive.
  • Dow Futures are flat to positive. DAX, FTSE also similar.
  • SGX is in green with 60 odd points.
Option chain
  • ATM strike premium net is 189. So 10911 to 11289
  • PCR is 1.17 for this expiry which is decent.
  • On Nifty Bank - 22000 strike net premium is 715. Thus 22715 is the upper end. 21285 on the lower side.
  • PCR is 0.61 for this expiry. It's on the lower side, we can expect short-covering before expiry.
FnO Data
  • FIIs have unwound considerable short positions.
  • Pros have added considerable long positions in index futures. But call shorts and put longs are massive.

Charts & technicals
  • Nifty Bank is on daily trendline support.
  • It broke 20 DMA support of 22191 yesterday. That may act as a small resistance.
Plan for today
  • Seeing Nifty Bank PCR - from the risk-reward standpoint, it might be worth going long if yesterday's low around 21800 is held.
  • But if SGX is true - we are looking for a decent gap-up. That doesn't help our case with risk-reward.
  • We can go short below yesterday's low for 100-200 points.
  • Sustaining 21500 will be another chance of going long as it has the highest put OI.

Popular posts from this blog

July 2/25

Global Dow closed -2.3% on Friday. Asian markets are in red. ~ -0.5% Dow Futures are positive (holding 25k level). DAX, FTSE are in red. SGX is in red by 50 odd points. Option chain 10500 has the highest OI at 25L. Near equivalent of 11000. The OI is not looking straight-forward to me. Put premiums decreased more but CE premiums didn't rise as much. 10300 PE-CE lost value by 40 points. My hunch is that -1 x 10300 PE and -2 x 10500 CE is a writing that's happening. This would give a range of 110 + 63.4*2 = 236.8 It's breakeven from 10040 to 10591 Unable to judge well for Nifty Bank FnO Data Pros, Clients have the biggest positions that are opposing. Pros have other bearish positions. Looking for a flat to negative opening. Charts & technicals On the weekly timeframe, Nifty made a dojo candle. A candle of indecision. Watch out for the low or high of it being taken out. Plan for today The upside is looking limited thus making me have a bearish hunch overall. Plus, risk-rew...
Read more

July 6/25

Global Dow was doing well but saw profit booking in the last hour and closed +92 points (0.36%) yesterday. Markets world over are flat. SGX is in green with 40 odd points. Option chain Max pain at 10500. Total premium is 261. So, the range becomes 10290 to 10812 10600 CE and 10500 PE has seen writing. It'll work as a temporary range for today maybe. Max pain for Nifty Bank is 22000. Total premium 976. So range is 20,977 to 22,969 FnO Data No, new options' positions. We'll watch out things unfold rather than trying to predict. Charts & technicals On the daily timeframe, Nifty has 200 EMA at 10499. This may act as support. We are in a rising wedge sort of pattern in Nifty. Ideally, the way is to watch out for breakout on either side. Plan for today I'm tempted to short but more comfortable to do it at around 10680-10700 range. Might have to control the temptation and just let things unfold.
Read more