July 15/25

Global
  • Dow closed +227 points (0.8%) yesterday.
  • HongKong, China, Japan markets are down by 1%
  • Dow Futures are down by 100 points. DAX, FTSE are also down by 0.5% or so.
  • SGX is in red with 25 odd points.
Option chain
  • Max pain for Nifty is 10700 with total premium at 115. So range being 10585 to 10815.
  • But we are currently at 10600 with premium 106. So range being 10494 to 10706.

  • Nifty Bank max pain at 21500. Range being 21097 to 21903.
  • But we are at 21300 thus, range being 20918 to 21682.
FnO Data
  • FIIs have covered Index Fut shorts and have added some longs.
  • The number of longs is fewer than the shorts that were being added since last few days.

Charts & technicals
  • On the daily timeframe, Nifty has support of 20DMA at 10508
  • Nifty Bank has broken 20 DMA which is at 21842. 50 DMA is at 20414.
Plan for today
  • The premiums are interestingly a little higher, I feel. In the opening whichever side has no or lesser decay could be the opening trade.
  • Going long at the lows with 20000 as the stoploss can be an okayish idea.
  • If it triggers stoploss and we get it moving up again, we can go long.
  • PCR is still low. i.e. 0.56 - need to watch out there also as this low PCR leads to short-covering but it's the expiry day.

Popular posts from this blog

July 2/25

Global Dow closed -2.3% on Friday. Asian markets are in red. ~ -0.5% Dow Futures are positive (holding 25k level). DAX, FTSE are in red. SGX is in red by 50 odd points. Option chain 10500 has the highest OI at 25L. Near equivalent of 11000. The OI is not looking straight-forward to me. Put premiums decreased more but CE premiums didn't rise as much. 10300 PE-CE lost value by 40 points. My hunch is that -1 x 10300 PE and -2 x 10500 CE is a writing that's happening. This would give a range of 110 + 63.4*2 = 236.8 It's breakeven from 10040 to 10591 Unable to judge well for Nifty Bank FnO Data Pros, Clients have the biggest positions that are opposing. Pros have other bearish positions. Looking for a flat to negative opening. Charts & technicals On the weekly timeframe, Nifty made a dojo candle. A candle of indecision. Watch out for the low or high of it being taken out. Plan for today The upside is looking limited thus making me have a bearish hunch overall. Plus, risk-rew...
Read more

July 6/25

Global Dow was doing well but saw profit booking in the last hour and closed +92 points (0.36%) yesterday. Markets world over are flat. SGX is in green with 40 odd points. Option chain Max pain at 10500. Total premium is 261. So, the range becomes 10290 to 10812 10600 CE and 10500 PE has seen writing. It'll work as a temporary range for today maybe. Max pain for Nifty Bank is 22000. Total premium 976. So range is 20,977 to 22,969 FnO Data No, new options' positions. We'll watch out things unfold rather than trying to predict. Charts & technicals On the daily timeframe, Nifty has 200 EMA at 10499. This may act as support. We are in a rising wedge sort of pattern in Nifty. Ideally, the way is to watch out for breakout on either side. Plan for today I'm tempted to short but more comfortable to do it at around 10680-10700 range. Might have to control the temptation and just let things unfold.
Read more