July 1/25

Global
  • Global markets closed positive yesterday.
  • Asian markets are in green.
  • Dow, Europe Futures are flat to negative.
  • SGX is in green by 40 odd points.
Option chain
  • 10300 is the closest strike. It's also the max pain.
  • The total premium collected on writing both sides is 124 + 187 = 311. Thus giving a range of 10289 +- 311
  • i.e. 9978 to 10600
  • Similarly for Nifty Bank.
  • 21500 +- 1159 = 20341 to 22659
  • For the monthly expiry, the range looks to be +-692 points for Nifty. i.e. 9597 to 10981
FnO Data
  • Both FIIs, DIIs sold in cash yesterday
  • Starting Net OI positions indicate FIIs, DIIs, Pros - bearish on Index Futures

Charts & technicals
  • 20 DMA at 10057. Also the level of 12 Mar high which was previously the gap on the upside.
  • On the upside 200 EMA is the closest at 10506. The high around i.e. 10553 becomes the level to breach for a bigger run. 10909 is 200DMA.

  • Nifty Bank 20 DMA ar 20800. Could act as support.
  • Nifty Bank will decide the next move of Nifty sooner.

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July 2/25

Global Dow closed -2.3% on Friday. Asian markets are in red. ~ -0.5% Dow Futures are positive (holding 25k level). DAX, FTSE are in red. SGX is in red by 50 odd points. Option chain 10500 has the highest OI at 25L. Near equivalent of 11000. The OI is not looking straight-forward to me. Put premiums decreased more but CE premiums didn't rise as much. 10300 PE-CE lost value by 40 points. My hunch is that -1 x 10300 PE and -2 x 10500 CE is a writing that's happening. This would give a range of 110 + 63.4*2 = 236.8 It's breakeven from 10040 to 10591 Unable to judge well for Nifty Bank FnO Data Pros, Clients have the biggest positions that are opposing. Pros have other bearish positions. Looking for a flat to negative opening. Charts & technicals On the weekly timeframe, Nifty made a dojo candle. A candle of indecision. Watch out for the low or high of it being taken out. Plan for today The upside is looking limited thus making me have a bearish hunch overall. Plus, risk-rew...
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July 6/25

Global Dow was doing well but saw profit booking in the last hour and closed +92 points (0.36%) yesterday. Markets world over are flat. SGX is in green with 40 odd points. Option chain Max pain at 10500. Total premium is 261. So, the range becomes 10290 to 10812 10600 CE and 10500 PE has seen writing. It'll work as a temporary range for today maybe. Max pain for Nifty Bank is 22000. Total premium 976. So range is 20,977 to 22,969 FnO Data No, new options' positions. We'll watch out things unfold rather than trying to predict. Charts & technicals On the daily timeframe, Nifty has 200 EMA at 10499. This may act as support. We are in a rising wedge sort of pattern in Nifty. Ideally, the way is to watch out for breakout on either side. Plan for today I'm tempted to short but more comfortable to do it at around 10680-10700 range. Might have to control the temptation and just let things unfold.
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